Trade turmoil at the ports: What the US–China fallout means for UK & EU supply chains

• Ship volumes at key ports – Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Southampton have more than tripled in recent weeks
• Luxury goods and FMCG shipments are being abandoned mid-transit or diverted to the EU
• Retailers and manufacturers are parking stock in Europe to avoid crossing into tariff exposure
• JLR paused all exports to the US as they work through the new terms
• VW suspended shipments between Mexico and the US
• Tesla halted orders for US-made vehicles in China
• Audi is holding vehicles at US ports
• Stellantis has paused production in North America
• Apple reportedly airlifted 600 tonnes of iPhones from India to the US via up to six cargo planes to beat tariff deadlines, even lobbying airport officials for faster turnaround

Freight forwarders are now seeing:

• A surge in air freight bookings resulting in limited excess capacity and reduced flexibility
• Disrupted contract rates on core lanes
• Increased demand for Bonded warehousing as firms seek to delay duty exposure

This is happening in real time, containers are rerouted, orders suspended, and inventory strategies are having to be rewritten on the fly.

Even if you’re not trading with the US or China, why does it matter?

Even businesses focused purely on UK–EU operations are feeling the effects. This is no longer a bilateral issue, it’s a global logistics event with consequences for:

• Freight pricing and availability (especially Asia–Europe)
• Port congestion and knock-on lead time issues
• Warehouse capacity constraints as goods get redirected into EU DC networks
• Planning stability, with suppliers and third parties forced to rework contracts and timelines
• Customs and bonded warehouse strategies shifting to mitigate tax exposure

Businesses should be asking:

• Should we re-route goods already on the water?
• Can we liquidate or divert stock to alternate regions?
• Do we have space or contractual room to hold or pause shipments?
• Are we exposed to new tariffs, or competitive displacement in key markets?

These aren’t long-term hypotheticals; they’re live commercial decisions.

Sector-specific impacts and responses:

Fashion & retail

• Seasonal goods stuck or rerouted
• Diverted US shipments redirected to EU stores or held in bonded storage
• Concern over “launch pile-ups” if delays compress product drop cycles
• Growing deflation risk as low-cost Asian goods flood the EU market

FMCG

• Packaging and ingredient delays due to port rerouting
• Stockpiling to maintain continuity putting pressure on warehouse space
• Imported US agri-products redirected into the EU, threatening pricing disruption

Electronics

• High-value SKUs flown in via emergency air freight (e.g. Apple)
• Micron introducing surcharges
• Nintendo delaying launches
• Uncertainty disrupting assembly timelines and downstream production

Automotive

• Tariff impacts halting shipments (JLR, VW, Audi, Tesla)
• Inbound parts stuck or delayed, affecting just-in-time plant flows
• Flood risk of Chinese-made vehicles/parts hitting the EU aftermarket as they’re blocked from the US

How you can respond:

At Hatmill, we’re exploring how businesses can act quickly and decisively to reduce risk and build resilience, reducing exposure, increasing agility, and enabling smarter decision-making under pressure.

Here’s where we’re focusing:

Tactical moves (short term)

• Model exposure scenarios: Varied tariff endgames, transit time, cost impact
• Freight strategy assessment: Diversifying port calls, modes and carriers
• Pre-emptive air freight: Especially for high-value or time-sensitive goods
• Warehousing: Exploring bonding options and new geographical locations
• Vessel diversions: Using forecast data to lead decisions to preserve profitability
• Track and triage port delays: Prioritisation of key stock vs. what can wait

Strategic considerations (mid to long term)

• Assess contractual risks: Encluding renegotiation triggers
• Build supplier alternatives: Especially for tariff-exposed products
• Directional forecasting, using data: Establish new principles that will manage inevitable over-supply resulting in cash tied up in stock
• Know your competitors’ exposure: Use their bottlenecks to your advantage
• Procure services to improve supply chain flexibility: Value-add services like relabelling or reworking where goods need repurposing for other markets

We’re continuing to map these themes across sectors and client types, understanding how best to support leaders facing uncertainty and planning for resilience, not just reaction.

What happens when everyone reacts at once?

We’re already seeing second-order effects emerging as multiple companies act simultaneously:

• Warehouse availability near major UK/EU ports is rapidly diminishing
• 3PL storage rates are rising sharply due to sudden demand spikes
• Increased delays in customs clearance and port operations caused by labour constraints
• Pressure cascading down supply chains, moving bottlenecks from ports to warehouses, transportation, and last-mile delivery

Looking ahead, consider these questions now:

• Where will the next bottleneck appear?
• Have we built flexibility into our distribution and storage arrangements?
• Are we prepared operationally and commercially if market conditions worsen?

If you’re:

• Conscious of the need to build resilience into your supply chain
• Looking to de-risk your operating model
• Aiming to plan for and mitigate supply and demand shocks
• Aware of the need to proactively respond to disruption

Then this disruption needs to be on your agenda.

Many businesses are already:

• Stockpiling to maintain service levels, at the cost of space and capital
• Liquidating or selling at cost to avoid write-downs
• Exploring rerouting to alternative trade blocs or halting US market activity entirely
• Quietly watching competitors to sense what’s coming next

The political and economic volatility will continue, but supply chain leaders don’t have to be passive passengers.

If you’re uncertain how to respond or need support in navigating these changes, Hatmill is here to help you move quickly, strategically, and confidently. Contact us now.